Finals Preview Part 2: Why the Dallas Mavericks should be doubted
With more insights from our highly qualified Celtics/Mavs hybrid fan
I’m going to try something new, in the name of brevity. This will be a 2-part series covering the NBA finals, one dedicated to each team and why we should or should not believe in that team. Part 1 covers the Celtics in the same format, and can be found here.
Another fun new thing: To give another voice who can speak to both teams, I invited my friend Romeo (@ItalianScallian on Twitter/X) to respond to each of these doubts. His two favorite teams for years have been… the Celtics and the Mavericks. His favorite players are Kyrie, Luka, and Tatum. He will be traveling to go to game 2, and then hopefully to game 6. So after I make my point for each team, he’ll give his response to my doubts and then some extra flavor, including a prediction for that side of his fandom.
With all the NBA finals content out there, we know these teams well. One team has Luka and Kyrie surrounded by athletic role players and a budding superstar in Jaden Hardy, and has only won 2 playoff rounds (in the same year) since Luka was drafted in 2018 before this run. The other has been in the Eastern Conference Finals in 4 of those 6 years, and has a group of stellar defenders and shooters led by two high level scoring wings. There’s probably a world in which each member of the starting 5 on the Celtics would make a All-Defense team in the regular season if they weren’t surrounded by each other, and the Mavericks have 0 players on their team who would qualify for that kind of high praise on the less-appreciated end of the floor.
The common angles to take on this series as a Mavericks supporter include:
The “HIM” Theory: It’s safe to bet on the best player in the series to lead their team to victory, and Luka’s the clear best player.
Recency bias: Looking at recent games, the Mavs look like they have everything going for them, and the Celtics don’t inspire people the same way.
My prediction about the Celtics from earlier this season: Such a 3-heavy offense can’t win a finals.
With these, I want to provide a legitimate concern that I haven’t seen discussed too much.
Why the Mavericks should be doubted: The Celtics are kind-of a souped-up OKC
Coming out of the second round, most people were writing Minnesota into the Finals. They had just beaten the seemingly unbeatable Denver Nuggets, and the Mavericks had had a somewhat close series win against the young and scrappy Thunder. Then, as we know, the Mavericks made surprisingly easy work of the Wolves.
Interestingly, I think that the Celtics are the most similar team to the Thunder in the NBA. So, assuming that’s true, and seeing that the Thunder gave the Mavericks their biggest challenge in these playoffs so far, we may be able to see how Boston can challenge Dallas in interesting and significant ways.
Some more similarities include:
High iso rates for both teams (over 13% of possessions). Boston’s not quite as efficient on them, but still well-above average.
Tons of catch and shoot three point attempts from both OKC and Boston.
Some of the differences are:
Boston drives a lot less (OKC is ALL about drives), so maybe that was a game changer in and of itself.
Shai is a level above anyone on the Celtics in terms of isolation scoring.
There’s no Giddey to pick on on Boston.
In their series against the Thunder, the Mavericks (similar to the Celtics above), seemed to take advantage of the moments when their opponent’s best players were off the floor. With Shai and Chet on the floor, the Thunder had a +7.4 net rating, and throwing J-Dub in with them, the Thunder still had a +5.9 net rating.
Also, as we know (it’s part of the “Matchups” reason above for the Celtics being predicted to win), the Mavericks’ two jumbo rim-running centers can’t have the same effectiveness defensively against a team with five shooters on the floor. Chet is pretty similar to KP in that way, with his shooting ability from everywhere on the floor. Of any player that’s played against the Mavericks in this postseason, Chet’s the one with the highest point differential.
To be fair to the Slovenian superstar, he seemed clearly hindered by his leg injury in that series (from which he magically healed in the conference finals). But, even in recognizing that, Dort had him very flustered with his physical defense. Dort’s like a young Marcus Smart on defense: will play amazing defense while also flopping annoyingly along the way. Jrue, Brown and Tatum aren’t Dort with the middle linebacker physique, but they provide strength and power in their resistance, unlike Jaden McDaniels was with his length (which brings back the painful memories of hoping Mikal Bridges and his length/quickness could stop Luka… until Luka broke all of us).
On offense, against OKC, they did not do as well around the rim (59.4% shooting), but against the other two teams they interestingly did (72.4% and 73.8% against LAC and Minnesota, respectively). I wonder if that can be attributed to the fact that OKC was just way more aggressive on Luka than Minnesota’s more conservative scheme. Boston enjoys having their bigs in drop, but I think they’re more willing to adapt their defensive scheme than Minnesota was.
So, yeah. Take a wingy roster with multiple strong defenders to throw and Luka/Kyrie, who play 5-out offense around a tall, string bean, shooting center, and it seems like there may be a formula to frustrate the Mavs.
Romeo’s Response
In 2011, a foreign superstar led a team equipped with a dominant rim protector, swiss army knife forward, microwave scorer and late career all star guard against a heavily favored “superteam” eastern conference foe. Who’s to say this can’t be repeated 13 years later with an even better superstar?
Anyone doubting the Dallas Mavericks after watching them dismantle the best Western Conference since at least the 2018 season needs to go watch this video, or this one to be reminded after this week off. The Mavs in 2024 have more playoff series wins against 50 win teams (3) than the Denver Nuggets do in the era of Nikola Jokic (1). The new superstar of the metaphor, Luka Doncic, is having the worst scoring playoffs of his career, and is still putting up numbers that only Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, Oscar Robertson (x2), and Nikola Jokic have ever matched in a full playoff run. HalleLuka is on such a historic run, that he is the first player to ever lead entire the playoffs in Points, Rebounds and Assists (and 5 other statistical categories) heading into the Finals. As for the Celtics home court advantage, Luka thrives in the unfriendly confines of opposing gyms. He might be the greatest road playoff performer of all time and on his way to being the most feared - averaging an extra 5 points on the road with a massive jump in efficiency this playoffs (+9% in FG%, +11% in 3P%).
While Luka is incredible and can win playoff games virtually by himself (sorry, DALLIN), the Mavs didn’t turn this season around until they got contributions from everyone else on the team.
Kyrie Irving, maybe the greatest second option of all time, has been exactly what the Mavs have needed this entire playoff run. From playing more off ball against OKC, to sending PJ Tucker into retirement (possibly), to coming alive in the 2nd half of games to put teams to bed (14.5 of his 22.8 points). He’s been crucial in getting the Mavs out in transition and attacking downhill when he catches the ball on a secondary action. I expect Kyrie to have another awe-inspiring performance in Boston for one of the games this series - similar to G1 in 2022.
As for all the other Mavericks, Derrick Lively is key to keeping size on the floor vs Boston’s 5 out system. If this series ends up similar to OKC as Dallin expects, PJ Washington will be important with his fire-without-hesitation, MPJ-style 3 pointers. DJJ has shown his defensive prowess this season, and Kleber has had success guarding all sorts of superstar forwards - both will be important in keeping the Jays in check. DJJ could also see minutes on Derrick White to help switch the White/Tatum PnR. Any extra contributions from the cohort of Josh Green, Dante Exum, Jaden Hardy, Daniel Gafford, and THJ could swing a game, but that group could also see their minutes slashed if they fail to perform.
Finally, the elephant in the room of any Celtics conversation - The Clutch:
Clutch stats in the regular season:
Boston - 21-12, 15.4 net rating
Dallas - 23-9, 20.5 net rating
Clutch stats in the playoffs:
Boston - 4-0, 43.9 net rating (thanks, Pacers)
Dallas - 6-3, 1.6 net rating
These stats don’t show a stark difference between the two teams (if you remove the Pacer games). My eye test and confidence meter tells me that the Mavericks have been better overall, especially at executing offense down the stretch. On the other hand, both feet, and a few extra extremities I had to borrow from friends sitting next to me, I can count the number of times that the Celtics clutch offense has failed to execute down the stretch. If the Mavs can just keep the game within reach until the last 8ish minutes of these games, I have more faith in their clutch duo to finish the job than I do the Celtics.
Romeo’s Mavericks-fan prediction: Mavs in 6.
PS: The confidence I have in the coaching adjustments Jason Kidd and Joe Mazzulla might make is as much of a mismatch as the confidence I had in Ben Affleck and Jeremy Renner’s characters making it out of the movie “The Town” alive. I’ll let you guys decide which is which.
PSS: The Celtics are the 11th team to go into the Finals with less than or equal to 20 losses in the 4 round playoff era (50 years) - the other teams are 9-1 all time. I bring this up because the only loss was to another 1st Team All-NBA King with Kyrie Irving as his running mate...either way history is going to repeat itself.
Dallin’s Super Valuable and Important Prediction
Mavs in 6.
I think Boston has all the talent to win this series handily, but I’ve stopped fighting the Suns fan urge to believe teams can stop Luka. Assuming Boston can step up and play way above how they did in the Pacers series, maybe it can happen. I don’t say 6 games because I don’t think it’ll be close, but I think that Luka will close at home if he has the chance. At the end of the day, he’s broken too many hearts and I think he will be adopting another son in a couple weeks.