I felt like was on an island back in the summer of 2022, trying to justify the Timberwolves decision to trade the basketball equivalent of the your 17 year old’s formidable college fund for Rudy Gobert, the Stifle Tower himself. The first season temporarily proved me wrong, as Rudy Gobert looked old and in the next phase of his post-DPOY journey, and Karl-Anthony Towns was injured for about 60 games.
As it’s been documented, they got the 8 seed in the playoffs, and put up a formidable fight in a 5 game loss against the eventual-champion Denver Nuggets. Bruce Brown, Nuggets legend, had the following to say about their series against the Timberwolves:
Honestly, I would say our toughest series was [against] Minnesota. […] I don't know. They had good players. It was Mike Conley, KAT, Ant. Like, I think that was our toughest series. Phoenix it was just blowouts each game.
Given the fact that the Wolves were missing two of their top 6 guys in that series, who were both injured at the very end of the season and during the play-in, it seemed like it could be a great jumping-off point for the squad. And it proved to be exactly that!
NOTE: I have a conspiracy theory that Tim Connelly, the former Nuggets basketball executive/current Timberwolves basketball executive, who did the Gobert deal as one of his first moves in his current role, did so with the Nuggets in mind. First, he saw it as the right way to go up against the top dog like Daryl Morey’s Rockets with the Warriors (not that crazy of a take), but secondly (the conspiracy part), he did it because he had dreamed of (knowing he never would be able to) putting Gobert next to Jokic. KAT has similarities to Jokic (skilled, ground-bound big who isn’t an explosive athlete but can shoot, score, and pass). Sorry for all the parentheses.
I say this because this season’s success for the Timberwolves, in which Gobert got back to his true DPOY ways and Anthony Edwards because the true 1A on the team, was extremely fun and vindicating for me. It felt like I was right (even though they probably could have saved some of their draft picks)! They finished the season with the number 1 defense by a good amount (and an average offense), and they were in contention for the top seed in the west on the last day of the season. I want them to do well! I root hard for the Wolves! However…
The Suns, who happen to be my favorite team, were the team against which their impenetrable defense struggled the most (123.7 points per 100 possessions allowed in the 3 games, compared to their average of 108.4), and they were outscored by a total of 47 points in 3 games. Granted, this is a small sample size, but there are definitely more questions about how the Timberwolves match up against the Suns than about how the Suns match up with the Timberwolves.
Before I get to those questions, this all goes under the massive recognition: This could be a 2022 Sixers vs Raptors situation. The Raptors were a popular team to pick over the 76ers, because Nick Nurse (ironically, the current 76ers coach) and the Wings of Fury had been so creative in the way that they had guarded Joel Embiid in the past. Then, in games 1 and 2 of that series, the Sixers won those games by a combined 35 points, and then in Game 3 Joel Embiid hit the greatest shot of his career. The Wolves may just be as much better than the Suns as the regular season records show, like the Sixers over the Raptors.
Nevertheless, everyone is entitled to my opinion.
Wolves Question 1: Can KAT (or Naz) guard… anyone besides the centers?
When Bradley Beal was injured, the Suns’ 5th guy was usually a non-moving spacer or non-shooter, such as Eric Gordon (spacer) or Josh Okogie (with all the love in the world, non-shooter). Karl-Anthony Towns guarded Eric Gordon in their first matchup while Conley guarded Grayson Allen (the best shooter in the NBA this season!). But now that Bradley Beal is firing on all cylinders, is Towns going to guard a movement shooter in Allen? And not one of those tall ones who can move but not that quickly, but a guard? (The same applies to Naz Reid playing next to Gobert as Gobert guards Nurkic). Let’s look at the projected starters:
Minnesota Phoenix
Conley Beal
Edwards Booker
McDaniels Allen
Towns Durant
Gobert Nurkic
The main issue is that neither of them can guard Kevin Durant, who is the starting 4 for the Suns, and Rudy Gobert cannot either. So, Jaden McDaniels or Anthony Edwards will be tasked with guarding Durant on defense. Kevin Durant can, on the other hand, guard KAT or Naz pretty well with his length.
Inherently, if Towns is on the 3-point line, it removes some of the double-big advantage right there. But the Suns are built without great size, but with high-level shooting at every position 1-4. They can’t as easily be there to help around the rim or defensive rebound if they’re having to be ready to heavily contest catch and shoot 3’s 28 feet from the hoop. This projects to be a problem.
Related Question: Conley on Beal?
The theoretical advantage for Phoenix of acquiring Bradley Beal was always going to be that few teams would have THREE great defenders on the perimeter to cover the three scorers. Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are awesome, but it means that an old, smaller Mike Conley will need to guard a Bradley Beal who’s coming off the hottest stretch of his injury-riddled season. In his last six games of the season (against 6 playoff/play-in teams that they had to try and win), he averaged 24.7/5.5/3.8 on 62/72/100 shooting. Obviously, it’s unlikely that he’ll repeat that efficiency, but it seems like he’s getting into playoff mode.
Wolves Question 2: What does Phoenix do well against Anthony Edwards?
In 3 games this season against the Suns, Anthony Edwards averaged 14.3 points, 6 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on 31% shooting from the floor and 27% from 3. Admittedly, the Suns don’t really have a stopper on the perimeter, but also Anthony Edwards can likely get by anyone in the league anyways.
In the two images below, you can see the amount of respect the Suns defenders were giving guys like Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker:
I think it’s pretty simple for them. Although these guys may be competent shooters, they are going to make them beat the Suns rather than Ant.
Ant’s passing will really be tested in this, because the Suns will make sure he’s getting off the ball in tight spaces. We’ll see how he fares!
Related Question: How will the Wolves offense do in general?
The Timberwolves, like many teams led by a young gun like Ant, go through dry spells on offense. Above, I talk about the matchups for each team on defense, and I suspect that the Wolves may hold their offense back more than anything specific the Suns do. This wouldn’t be such a concern for me if it weren’t for the defensive issues, but maybe I’m wrong. They just can’t let it slog up.
Suns Question 1: Are they susceptible to the Wolves honing in on rebounding?
Rebounding is the main way that the Wolves’ size could be used as an advantage. During the season, the Suns had an above average offensive rebounding rate and a below average defensive rebounding rate. The Wolves were the opposite, but you wonder if they might decide to put pressure on the Suns 5 guards + KD non-bigs to try and rebound. Jaden McDaniels is their starting SF, and is about as tall as KD, the Suns’ starting PF.
Suns Question 2: Will they… like… not be bad every third game?
I think that everyone who paid any attention to the Suns asked themselves, a friendly group chat, or the greater social media world: “Why are the Suns like this?”. It started with losing two consecutive games to the Spurs in their 4th and 5th games of the season. The season ended (or the 3rd to last game) with the Suns going down 35-4 to start the game. As I described earlier in the year, we (suns fans) have been a pained fanbase wondering when we’d be disappointed again. Christmas against Luka hurt. Being outscored time and time again by double digits in the 4th quarter made me sad. So I’m not emotionally willing to be fooled again.
But all that being said, I’m predicting Suns in 6. I dare you to disappoint me again, Suns.
Suns in 6 still possible!
I think for the Wolves to have success KAT is going to have to punish the smaller defenders the Suns put on him. To me that was the main differentiator when Naz filled him for him while he was hurt. Naz can approximate KATs perimeter offense and being more nimble than opposing bigs. But I didn't see him punish smaller players the way that KAT has done