NBA SEASON PREVIEW - East
My super important opinions on the future, of which I know nothing about
Seeing that I had a disappointing NBA fantasy draft1 last night, it looks like the real basketball is just around the corner. It feels like a great time to make predictions about how the season will go, since that’s what all the articles and podcasts are doing. So, why write a lengthy intro about it? Let’s get into it.
Ye Ol’ Eastern Conference’s Predictions
Prediction #1: Every one of the projected top 4 will disappoint relative to their lofty expectations, providing space for a plucky team or two to snag home court.
Everyone and their neighbor has Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee as the top four teams in the Eastern Conference. There’s good reason for this, since the conference’s top nine players may be on these four teams2. But Porzingis is already injured, Embiid and George will likely miss at least 20 games and they don’t have much behind those guys, the Knicks only have 5 real NBA rotation players (also, Mikal’s jumper?!), and the Bucks are all signing up for AARP.
Now, do I really mean that every single one of the teams will disappoint? Disappointment is subjective, but I think that each team expects to be better than should be realistically expected of them given each of their respective likely adversity. That being said, I think that the Celtics likely still finish first in the conference. Just not at 65+ wins or whatever some people seem to be thinking.
Prediction #2: The pluckiest of the plucky teams are the Indiana Pacers.
I am extremely biased here, but I think that many people are discounting the Pacers because they *checking notes* met expectations in the playoffs. Yes, they played injured teams in the first two rounds, but they also won both of those series, and then lost to the superior Celtics. As for their chances of improvement upon last year’s regular season, Tyrese Haliburton never looked the same after the confluence of injuries, and they integrated an all-star forward mid-flight. Also, I think that their youth and depth3 bode well for potential injuries.
Prediction #3: The Hawks will finish with a better record than the Heat
Now, the Hawks finished two spots behind the Heat last season, but won TEN less games. Both teams had seasons with plenty of injury and turmoil, but the Hawks are the ones this offseason who decided it was time to make a change, which makes sense, given that the Heat made the finals in 2023 and the Hawks definitely did not. That being said, I don’t think the Heat have a real chance of improving while the Hawks do. I think that obtaining long, defensive players in Risacher, Dyson Daniels, and Larry Nance Jr., and then reorienting the team around bearded Trae and an ascending Jalen Johnson instead of less-bearded Trae and another point guard will only benefit them.
Is that enough to make up the ten game difference from last year? Clearly, I think it has a good chance to. Accepting that Bam and Jimmy are better than Trae and Jalen, the following eight players from each team’s rotation gives the Hawks an indubitable advantage. I believe that Capela, Bogdanovic, Hunter, Okongwu, Nance, Daniels, and Risacher is better than Herro, Rozier, Jaquez Jr., Jovic, Robinson, Highsmith, Ware, and Richardson. And I don’t think it’s particularly close.
So… yeah. Maybe I’m crazy. But I don’t get paid to provide purely rational takes!
Prediction #4: The Bulls will be fun to watch
No, I don’t think that the Bulls will be a good team next year. However, I can imagine a team with Josh Giddey and Lonzo Ball (may he stay as healthy as possible) leading fast breaks and Coby White and Zach LaVine4 launching threes can be very fun. Zach’s still an amazing athlete after seventeen (an estimate) knee surgeries, and they haven’t had a pass-first point guard the last two seasons.
Also, they have Suns legend Jalen Smith!
So yeah, I think it’ll be fun to watch them compete to stay out of the play-in. Sue me.
My predicted standings for the end of the year
Celtics
Pacers
Bucks
Cavs
Knicks
Sixers
Magic
Hawks
Heat
Raptors
Bulls
Pistons
Hornets
Wizards
Nets
In my league, a good friend and fantasy adversary has Wembanyama and Jokic, but kindly traded Giannis for Trae Young to our newest league member. Still unfair. My team is Luka, Booker, Markkanen, Scottie Barnes, Gobert, Duren, MPJ, Cam Thomas, Ayton, Brandon Miller, Grayson Allen, Tyus Jones, and the real Maple Jordan himself, RJ Barrett. Analytics say I’ll be mediocre, but I project Luka and Cam Thomas combining for 100 points per game. If only that’s what won in fantasy.
Those nine are: Giannis, Embiid, Tatum, Brunson, Brown, Lillard, Maxey, Towns, George. Many would like a word, including but not limited to Banchero, Barnes, Young, Haliburton, Mitchell, Siakam, Butler, and Adebayo.
I have brought it up before, but they are at least 2-deep at every position on the roster, and have numerous multi-positional guys. Haliburton/McConnell, Nembhard/Sheppard, Nesmith/Mathurin, Siakam/Toppin/Walker, Turner/Jackson/JAMES WISEMAN.
Until Zach is traded to the Lakers or Heat in a desperation trade.