And just like that, KD's gone

Staying positive after two point five disappointing seasons

Congrats to the Thunder! I rooted against them the whole way through the playoffs (I would have rooted for them against certain teams (Lakers, Warriors, Celtics), but they never ended up playing those teams). They won on defense, and if they can figure out their offense, then the next few years will be even scarier for the West. I don’t know how much of the roster they can keep together after this next season, but, no matter what, they’re on their way.

The Pacers surprised everyone and had a real shot in that last game. Maybe the Thunder’s defense would have knocked the wind out of them later in the game anyways, but the Achilles tear of Haliburton did that for them. Go Pacers!

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Kevin Durant, it’s been real. I remember waking up the morning after the trade news broke when the Suns sent Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, four first round picks and a first round pick swap to the Nets for the services of Mr. Durant. The Suns had been the only team (no, Miami wasn’t really an option) on his list, and the Nets insisted that they were willing to wait until the offseason to trade him. Enter brand new NBA owner, Mat Ishbia, who ended up bartering away all of the Suns assets in an example of how not to make a deal. James Jones had meticulously engineered a championship-level roster that no one believed in from 2019 to 2022, even after picking Deandre Ayton over Luka Doncic and being managed by the infamous Robert Sarver. In one evening, Ishbia took the reins from his experienced subordinate and decided to make a name for himself.

And… here we are. Three playoffs played, one playoff series win, and countless unhappy Suns fans formed, sunk costs remain what they are. The Suns traded Kevin Dur-can’t for Jalen Green (#2 pick of the 2020 draft!), Dillon Brooks (Steph Curry stopper!), the #10 pick which was traded to the Rockets by the Nets who received it in 2023 from the very Suns we are discussing, and five second round picks that go from this draft all the way to 2032. And, with all of that, I’m pretty excited.

How can a Suns fan be excited about this?

What else am I supposed to do? It feels like the first move of the next era of Suns basketball. Now, is there a 10% chance of Devin Booker winning another playoff round as a Phoenix Sun before he decides that it’s in his best interest to Lillard-ly depart? Probably! But we had to start somewhere, and clearly this is the best offer we could get.

The guys over on The Timeline Podcast are some well-meaning Suns-fan-first podcasters who were extremely worked up about this trade on their emergency podcast, so I’m going to use some of their talking points to disagree with them.

NOTE: Like I mention above, the ultimate goal for the Suns is to create a playoff contender around Devin Booker again, and I don’t necessarily think that it’s all that likely after this trade. But, I don’t think that any trade for KD would have done that by itself.

Negative Talking Point #1: Jalen Green is a bad basketball player.

Jalen Green is definitely a work-in-progress shooting guard. He was the #2 pick in the 2020 draft because of his potential, and the Rockets had to have believed he’d be further along by now. But let’s take a look at his past season, which was his second year with veterans and a great coach in Ime Udoka.

• Led the team in scoring at 21 points per game. Many will say that it doesn’t mean much in today’s day and age (it’s only 21 points and who cares about points-per-game?), but I’ll counter with this: Who was the last bad basketball player to lead a 52 win team in scoring? The last players to do so and not make an all-NBA team were DeMar DeRozan and Blake Griffin in 2016. Not awful company!

• For the nerds, Jalen Green’s advanced stats were far from bad. Ironically, Green had the same VORP this past season as Devin Booker. He was ahead of guys like Jaylen Brown, De’Aaron Fox, and DeMar DeRozan in BPM. His 11.4% turnover rate was lower than fellow Suns Shooting Guards Booker and Beal, and also lower than Fox, Austin Reaves, Coby White, and other random somewhat-similar players around the league with similar usage rates. He’s a shooting guard at heart, but adopted some positive habits under the tutelage of VanVleet and Ime Udoka.

• This year his outside shooting clicked better while he was off the ball, with him shooting 41% on catch and shoot 3’s. Can’t wait!

I’ll talk more about the fit (in terms of his position) below, but good coaches should be able to make good players work, especially when the immediate goal is not a championship. Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook WORKED. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle WORKED. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden did NOT need a second basketball to look good together (for 16 total games). Jordan Ott, the new Suns head coach who just so happened to graduate from the same alma mater as the owner and GM of the Suns, should be able to make this team play decent basketball, because Jalen Green is a talented player.

Negative Talking Point #2: The Suns should have gotten ____!

Clearly, the Suns had no leverage. Kevin Durant had publicly asked out, the Suns had no assets, and teams were calling their bluff. Yes, the Heat should have offered more, but by all accounts, it was Andrew Wiggins, another salary, and the #20 pick as basically all they were willing to offer. Durant messed with the market by leaking info about his lack of desire to live in the upper Midwest (extending to Toronto), and because of that, the Timberwolves tucked their tails and backed away from the table.

Ironically, I think that the Rockets would have been better off trading Jabari Smith Jr. for fit, since now, of their rotation last year + KD, they have two centers, three power forwards, a non-shooting Amen Thompson, and then one other guard (FVV). But perhaps they are wanting to use Jabari in a trade for later on, or truly believe in his and Tari Eason’s ability to play the 3.

But yeah, until we hear that team Y had offered significantly more than two starters on a good team and a lottery pick (not including the Timberwolves reported offer, which had to have been contingent on KD wanting to play there and signing an extension), then I won’t be considering this a mistake as much as the reality of dealing with Kevin Durant and his business partner, Rich Kleiman after trading the farm to get him.

Negative Talking Point #3: We have too many shooting guards now…

I don’t disagree with this idea, but size was a problem last year too. Last season, five of the players who played in the top six for minutes last season are 6’5 and under. At least Dillon Brooks is 6’6!

I don’t really have a way to dispute this idea, but more of a plan of attack for the Michigan State Summer Breakers down in Phoenix to ponder. More on that below in the draft section.

Also, the Thunder just won a title with a bunch of shooting guards! Shai, J-Dub, and Wiggins are 6’6, Caruso and Joe and 6’5, and Dort and Wallace are 6’4. So, it’s not the shooting guards that are the problem for the Suns, but the SYSTEM and the DOGGEDNESS in them. We can’t fix the lack of dog in certain players, but hopefully a fresh start for the team can introduce a place where our shooting guards can play more to their potential.

So, what now?

The Draft

Well, first and foremost, the Suns should NOT use their #10 draft pick to draft a player on the shorter end. I know I said that you can win with a bunch of guards, but the Suns do need more size. More specifically, I’d suggest that they target one of these tall passing kids, like Egor Demin from BYU (I know, I’m biased).

Another option is Danny Wolf out of Michigan. The theory for one of these guys that they could be a hub on offense, but play the 4 on defense, making the Green/Booker/Brooks and other shooting guards backcourt work defensively. Mike Budenholzer did all sorts of things wrong this past season, but one seemed to be the need to play a bunch of small guards together all the time. Other players that seem to fit the mold: Collin Murray-Boyles, Thomas Sorber, or the cool pick around town, Cedric Coward. But the Suns may be too enticed by picking an AZ kid and just snag Carter Bryant, a prototypical “he’s big and he’s a wing! Just wait until he’s good at basketball!”

With the other draft picks, I’d suggest just going for solid players, and say it with me, WITH SIZE. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Drake Powell, Hansen Yang, etc. I don’t know much about the draft, but yeah. Give me Demin and a backup, young big.

The Rest of the Offseason

I’ve become more of a believer in internal development over external changes over time, even though I love LOVE trade ideas for the fun of it. The constant shuffling of players with limited assets is what leads to teams being in purgatory (look at our friends with the beam and the cowbells), and these are human beings who can be helped to improve with appropriate leadership and support.

That being said, the Suns literally have to change portions of the team, given that they are going to need to shed salary to get under the second apron (so they are 100% not guaranteeing Micic or Martin’s salaries, which amounts to $16m in savings). Here are some things I’m supportive of:

1. Saying Adieu to Bradley Beal

If it’s in a trade that he accepts or a buy-out, the Suns need to respectfully remove Bradley Beal from the depth chart. There was some logic to the trade when it happened, but the worst case outcome came to pass, and it’s time to cut our losses. It’s just been a bad fit! That’s all!

2. Trading Grayson Allen and/or Royce O’Neale and NO FIRST ROUND PICKS for a forward

Once they’re under the second apron, they can combine salaries to take back less salary than the sum of the ones they’re sending out. Here’s a couple ideas:

Grayson Allen for PJ Washington

Why the Suns do it: They have too many guards and Grayson is good.

Why the Mavs do it: They have too many bigs and PJ is good.

Royce O’Neale for Kyle Anderson

Why the Suns do it: Kyle Anderson can pass and defend, and is tall.

Why the Heat do it: Royce is a much better fit for the Heat as a backup wing shooter.

Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale for Patrick Williams and Jalen Smith

Why the Suns do it: It may be an awful idea given how widely criticized that Patrick Williams deal is, but there’s a lot more size and potential in these Bulls players (especially Suns legend Jalen Smith).

Why the Bulls do it: Any chance to get off of Patrick Williams’s deal is probably a good one.

NOTE: This is probably an awful trade idea. But the Suns probably need to take a risk at some point on a player for their upside with Devin Booker.

Other final thoughts on the trade

Like I said, this is step one to getting back to normal in the Valley. I am pained by the idea of the Suns losing Devin Booker in the next two years because of the mistakes made by a new owner and his CEO who happens to be the son of Bradley Beal’s agent. My brother asked me recently (as we left a beatdown by the Braves on my Mets) whether being a fan of a specific team, instead of just a general sports fan like himself, more often makes me happy or sad. I responded that it feels good to be invested in something that feels important but isn’t the end of the world when things go poorly.

But yeah, I believe that this is a legitimate step in what could be the right direction. Talent, athleticism, youth, and coaching can turn things around while the team races against the clock of Devin Booker’s patience.

Just please don’t go to the Lakers, Devin.

Hey! Talk about the Rockets!

What do you want me to say? That the Rockets are in a great place with only a few things to figure out? That Amen Thompson fits perfectly at the 2 so that they can play 2 or 3 bigs at all times? That now that FVV signed a massive paycut to stay in Houston, they have options to go and get more backcourt depth in case Sheppard and Whitmore aren’t ready? That KD will thrive as long as they don’t depend on him as much as the Suns did to playmake for the rest of the guys? That Sengun will probably be an all-NBA player next year? That they are engineered to exploit the Thunder’s weaknesses as a rim-attacking, non-rebounding team? That Rafael Stone is doing great work after people maligned his name as Daryl Morey’s replacement? But also, that the Rockets should be careful that Kevin Durant sometimes gets unhappy and it becomes annoying when you just want basketball to go well for your team?