Going Deep Undercover: The Lakers
Investigating what's going on in basketball Hollywood
For the first time in years, the Los Angeles Lakers aren’t really the center of the NBA discourse.
I think that there’s a few reasons for this:
They’re not great but also they’re not bad.
A respectable 24-18 record, which is 12th best in the league.
According to their margin of victory, basketball-reference says they should be 19-23, which would be 20th best in the league.
Against the top 10 teams in the league (by net rating), they are 3-8.
Against the bottom 10 teams in the league, they are 12-1.
Against the middle 10 teams, they are a perfectly balanced 9-9.
They are actually worse with LeBron James, exemplary centenarian, on the floor.
According to Cleaning The Glass’s on/off, he has the 7th worst point differential among players with more than 800 minutes played.
Anthony Davis, while putting up good individual offensive numbers (26/12/4 on just under 60% true shooting), isn’t buoying up their team to an exceptional defense by any means.
They are 20th in overall defensive net rating, with the only one of the defensive four factors where they are better than 20th in the league being defensive foul rate (they are 3rd overall). Also, the defense is barely (0.6 points per 100 possessions) better when he’s on the floor than when he’s off.
Bronny James, the center of all ESPN NBA coverage over the summer, has been rightfully assigned to grow in the G-league.
So, there isn’t really a clear narrative to latch onto. The Dorian Finney-Smith trade was a shrewd move to help bolster their wing depth. The team was actually better with D-Lo on the court than when he was off, but the vibes and the culture didn’t work with him anymore. So even that move didn’t get much airtime. And I assume that most laker fans are happy about that.
For me, this presents an intriguing situation, where I can feel okay talking about my least favorite team in sports in a less-biased context. They have occupied less of my brain real estate this year (maybe it’s less Lowe Post episodes with ESPN-encouraged Laker content). So here we go, let’s ask and answer some questions.
Is LeBron really this much of a negative this year?
As mentioned above, the Lakers have played much better when he’s off the floor than when he’s on the floor. If we look at lineup (filtering out garbage time minutes) combinations of him, Austin Reaves, and Anthony Davis, we may get a little bit more context:
This chart above is the minutes in all Laker games (highlighting lineup combinations who played more than 100 minutes together), including games in which these three players may have missed games. Interestingly, when LeBron is on the floor, the opponents are lighting the nets on fire with their 3’s (the little box), which usually regresses to the mean with more of a sample size. I really doubt that LeBron is making his opponents shoot this well from three. If we consider only games in which all three have played (better for anticipating success in big games), the numbers improve for LeBron, even if they don’t return to his regular career levels:
So, in the rhythm of a game where these guys play together, LeBron’s numbers aren’t quite as jarring. They’re still not great, but maybe not one-of-the-worst-in-the-league levels.
LeBron is known for chilling off the ball on defense, as seen here in their recent loss to the now crosstown rival:
But my verdict is that I don’t think that it’s as bad as the stats say on the surface. Opposing teams are drilling shots with LeBron on the court, and the offense is just fine with him on the court. What’s probably more concerning is the fact that with their best three players on the floor, they are basically breaking even.
How much should be invested in improving this team?
Tonight, Shams Charania said that Anthony Davis wants a big next to him so that he can play the four. This Deandre Aytonian claim is a constant in Anthony Davis-land, but this team really doesn’t have another rotation-quality big who can back up AD, let alone play alongside him. Also, they don’t have another guard besides Austin Reaves who can run an offense. As we saw in the charts above, they’re not playing great when LeBron is out there without AR.
So, here’s an FTI that answers both needs!
Over the last 4 seasons (before this season), Simons is shooting the following percentages on catch and shoot 3’s: 51.4%, 47.8%, 39.2%, and 42.7%. He’s a sure bet to be an improvement on offense over Vincent, and Hachimura is less essential now that they traded for DFS. On Reath, it’d be a gamble, but he’s shown the ability to stretch the floor in a way that it would help AD still have the middle of the floor on offense.
This way, they use a pick, get younger, and very likely get better (in my opinion) right now. Using the 2031 pick seems shortsighted, as well as giving up all of their mid-sized salaries for one guy. It’s a win-win-win!