My Most Interesting Team
What does a team with 6 starters and 0 starting centers do?
In one of my son’s favorite books, it uses the ABC’s to teach about (mostly recent) figures in NBA-history. R is for Russell Westbrook, S is for Ben Simmons (this was in 2020, when the world was still high on the young man), A is for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and H is for James Harden. It’s an awesome book (except for they spelled Kawhi “Kwahi”). They include Z for Zion (calling him Zanos, for Thanos), as he was just coming into the league after one of the most memorable freshman seasons in NCAA history. One of the most unique players we had ever seen, we couldn’t get enough and knew that no one would be able to physically stop him.
Zion’s Pelicans remain the most interesting team in the league, for a variety of reasons. They technically have three all-stars (Zion, Brandon Ingram, and Dejounte Murray) and a certain wing (Trey Murphy III) who smart people, like ESPN’s Zach Lowe, think will make one or two all-stars himself. CJ McCollum is a pro’s pro, and Herb Jones is a joy as an amazing role player. They seem to have it all, so what’s so interesting?
1. Is Zion, like, going to get the MVP?
Obviously, this is dependent on team success, but let’s address this first.
The other day, Zion posted a picture of his slimmed-down physique, and reports say that he’s planning on losing some more weight by the beginning of the season.
There’s no one like Zion, at least that finds success in the NBA. I think that he’s among the most unstoppable forces attacking the rim like a Giannis, he has the ability to thrive in running the pick n’ roll as discovered by Stan Van Gundy, and moves off the ball like beast with his spin moves and cuts.
Who remembers his first game as an NBA player?
On January 22, 2020, The Spurs were up by double digits in the 4th quarter and Zion had played a weird game so far, scoring only 2 points in the first half. The entire league had been waiting for this game as he had missed the whole season up to that point because of an injury, and it was turning out to be a dud.
Then, out of nowhere, he exploded for 17 points in the 4th quarter, including 4-of-4 from 3. We got his patented spin move for a lob:
And this was his 4th three, making the crowd and many in their homes lose their minds:
And do you remember his latest game as an NBA player?
The Lakers were also up double digits late in the most recent Western Conference 7/8 play-in game, and Zion went for 40 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists. Everyone who was watching knew that Anthony Davis (a contender for best defensive player in the league) and old-man LeBron could do nothing against any of his moves. He was dominating.
Then, he got hurt on a play in which he made a tough layup over Davis, and couldn’t come back for the game or their first round series against the Thunder.
But boy, is he awesome or what?! I think there’s a chance that this is his leap year. Zion for MVP. Call it in.
2. Can they put together a normal season?
Well, my overzealous Zion-for-MVP opinions obviously depend on them exceeding expectations as a team in their win-loss record. After looking into it, they’ve had stretches of every season where they look like a top team.
In the past 3 seasons:
2021-22
18-33 through the end of January (Started 3-16, prompting questions like “are they the worst team in history?”)
18-14 after January 31
2022-23
23-12 until December 30th
19-28 after December 31st
2023-24 (a little bit different because the winning-time came in the middle, but still)
9-9 until November 29
35-18 from November 29 to March 26
5-6 after March 26
What’s their deal? Obviously, some of these trends would correlate with injuries, but they’ve put together real runs each season to show that they can be dangerous. Willie Green, a member of the Monty Williams coaching tree, has done a great job inspiring a gritty team who teams don’t like messing with. So, with a Zion leap season (finally) and a consistent winning season (finally), everything will be amazing! Right?
3. What will they do with McCollum and Ingram?
Like I state in the subtitle, this Pelicans team currently has 6 starting-level players but none of them are centers. Now, would I be interested in seeing a Dejounte/Murphy/Ingram/Herb/Zion lineup? Certainly. But they’re a tough nut to crack as to how to optimize this situation, and they were heavily reliant on current Wizard Jonas Valančiūnas and current Hawk (part of the Murray trade) Larry Nance Jr., so they need to figure out the center thing.
The Pelicans’ desire to trade Brandon Ingram is not a secret, and many people assume they regret giving McCollum such a large extension ($33m this year, $30m next year). Looking at the core 5 guys that remain on the team, and not including Murray, I wanted to see how successful the team was with each of them on the court. So, looking at lineups with any of those 5 guys on the court over the past 3 seasons, and filtering out the lineups that had played less than 250 minutes together:
7 of the top 10 in net rating have Trey Murphy III
7 of the top 10 in net rating also have Herb Jones
8 of the top 11 in offensive rating have CJ McCollum, but 8 of the bottom 10 in defensive rating have CJ McCollum as well
Each of the top 4 in net rating do NOT have Zion in them (a point against my MVP case for him)
But, the top lineup in offensive rating is with everyone except Ingram
But again, Ingram is in 5 of the top 8 for offensive rating
The thing is, Dejounte Murray is better than CJ McCollum. Trey Murphy III plays the same position as Ingram, is a better fit with Zion, and Ingram’s demanding a big pay day after this season.
SIDE NOTE: Dejounte Murray’s fit with Trae Young in Atlanta wasn’t perfect, but last season may have been Murray’s best so far in his career. 22.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists on a career best TS% (still not stellar at 55% TS, but still his best!). Also, he shot over 7 threes per game, which is a very meaningful increase from his days in San Antonio. I think it shows his ability to fit next to someone like Zion who needs the spacing.
Here’s how the current depth chart seems to project to be (my favorite starters in bold):
Guard: Murray (1-2) / CJ (1) / Alvarado (1)
Wing: Ingram (2-3) / Herb (2-3) / TM3 (2-3) /Hawkins (2)
Forward: Zion (4) / Robinson-Earl (4-5)
Center: Theis (5) / Missi (5)
So, yeah. I think that, in a perfect world where 2024-25’s contracts don’t matter and every player is humbly willing to take the role Willie Green gives them, the best-fitting starting lineup would be Murray, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Zion, and Theis with no moves made. But, given the center situation, I’d try and trade McCollum and a pick for Deandre Ayton (probably CJ to a third team, as I assume that Portland doesn’t want him back).
Ayton is not perfect by any means (I know his game well), but he’s better than JV from last year, and Willie Green cobbled together an 8th ranked defense with only one really good defender on the team. He is an amazing rebounder, has real touch away from the rim (even if it doesn’t extend out to the 3), and can carry lineups for limited stretches. We know his motivation can wax and wane, but who wouldn’t want to run through a wall for this guy??
As for Ingram, he’s a tough fit for teams. He’s talented, but needs to get paid next year. Against the Suns in the 2022 playoffs, he put up 27/6/6 on 48/41/83 shooting and looked like an ascendant superstar. But then, in 2023, he didn’t look great for the disappointing Team USA World Cup team, and then he got humbled by Lu Dort’s linebacker defense in the 2024 playoffs (with the caveat that Zion was hurt).
I don’t think he’s a bench player, which is why I don’t think he’s likely to stay on the Pelicans as a 6th man. So, they may just bring Trey Murphy III off the bench again, or they’ll find a trade partner for Ingram.
I’m really not sure overall about the right way to deal with the Ingram situation. It just needs to be dealt with. But Tyler Herro would probably be a pretty good 6th man, given his history!
But, again, if Trey Murphy still plays 25+ minutes per game in an off-the-bench role, with all the injuries this team seems to deal with, then it may not be the worst thing in the world. But, then what? Are you just going to pay Ingram to stay for another 4 years?
Conclusion
I see a lot of people talking about the Grizzlies, but I think the Pelicans are a better bet to be fighting Phoenix and the Lakers for the final two spots in the top 6 (below Minnesota, Denver, OKC, and Dallas). *whispers* I think it’s even possible that Dallas isn’t a top 4 team if Klay stays looking old *runs away*. I think New Orleans is due for a good year.
All in all, if Zion wins MVP, you heard it here first.
Your son has great taste in books!