Re-Finding the Magic
Orlando's down, but obviously not out. Should they make a move?
The Orlando Magic are in a funk, and at a weird time. Paolo Banchero (#8 on Bill Simmons’s trade value rankings) has been back for 11 games, and Franz Wagner has been back for 5 games. They’ve lost 9 of those 11 games (and 4 of the 5 with Wagner), including two to Portland, one to Toronto, and a bad one tonight to the Utah Jazz, who had been on an 8 game losing streak.
Obviously, these guys are coming back from injury, and Jalen Suggs has been out for so much of this stretch (every game besides their recent win against Detroit). But as I’ve mentioned before, the Magic have been in the bottom 10 for offense for the last (estimated) four centuries, and it does not look like that’s changing this year, since they’re 29th (again, with their best two players missing most of the Magic’s game this season). With either Franz OR Paolo on the floor so far this season, their offense is better, but that number would still rank between 23rd and 24th in the league this season. So, there’s work to do.
With F. Wagner’s and Suggs’s big extensions kicking in this next season, and Paolo’s max extension inevitably being inked this offseason, this trade deadline may make the most sense to consolidate some of their contracts to GET. SOME. SHOOTING. I will propose them in descending order of drastic-ness.
FTI #1: Zach LaVine, again
NOTE: I am pulling this from my piece on Zach LaVine a few weeks ago.
It is very possible that this would not be enough for LaVine, given that they are not sending any picks to Chicago. I’d say throw in Denver’s pick this year! A lineup of Suggs/LaVine/Franz/Paolo/Any-Of-Their-Numerous-Centers would be killer. They’d be expensive, but I think they’d be ready now.
FTI #2: Michael Porter Jr.
I tried to put Mo Wagner here for the Nuggets (he would be the best backup Jokic has ever had), but I remembered that he is out for the season. The Magic would be paying a lot for MPJ, but their shooting would improve while retaining their insane size advantage that they often have. Nuggets fans probably will not like this trade much, but maybe it’s time to stop wondering if MPJ will reach his potential and cash in.
FTI #3: Grayson Allen
As you can see I have a specific vision for who they can add to improve their offense: shooting. Grayson, everyone’s favorite man, started the season a little bit cold but has shot FIFTY THREE PERCENT from 3 over his last 15 games. “But Dallin, you said he started cold. What was that?” He was at 37.6% before his last 15, which would be FIRST by a considerable margin on the team (the next highest is Mo Wagner at 36%). So his current percentage at 43.5% might break the Magic’s computers.
So why the focus on 3’s?
If we take a look at their four factors on offense, we’ll see that there’s one number that’s much worse than the rest: their eFG%. Their TOV% is also pretty poor, but that number improves considerably when Paolo or Franz are on the floor (but, noticeably, their eFG% doesn’t really budge the same way).
The Magic are currently taking the 17th most 3’s, so the issue is not the number of threes (like it might be with the aforementioned Nuggets). They are also 17th in 2P%, which isn’t great either. But being 30th in the league (LAST) in eFG% is specifically because they cannot shoot the ball from deep. Get Jalen Suggs some help!