Zach LaVine is known for numerous things: beating Aaron Gordon in the greatest dunk contest of all time (I still think AG deserved that one), being traded for Jimmy Butler by the Timberwolves, and being a “good stats on a bad team” guy (I mean that literally and not subjectively, since he’s played in FOUR total playoff games in his entire career). Also, the contract he signed 2.5 years ago is daunting, being owed $43m this year, $46m next year, and then has a player option for $49m the following year (as Ryen Russillo says, I’m guessing he’ll pick that up). But, he’s an awesome player. I’m looking today at why teams should look at trading for him.
Zach’s Value Proposition
In a vacuum, LaVine is having a stellar season. He’s averaging 23.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists on 51.8/44.4/80.8 shooting splits. The Bulls are about even with him on the floor (+0.8 net rating per Cleaning the Glass), and they’re very bad when he’s off the floor (-8.2 net rating). The biggest change that you can see is in their team eFG% swing with him on or off the floor, from 58.0% (93rd percentile) when he’s on to 53.2% (37th percentile) when he’s off the floor. Now, he is the only offensive player of his level on the team, so the on/off makes sense. But, the opposite would say a lot more about him.
At 29 years old, he’s still got unbelievable athleticism:
Then, later in this same Hawks game from a couple weeks ago, he showed off his silky, best-in-class (literally) 3-point shooting for this year with four threes in 2 minutes and 30 seconds:
So… yeah. Zach’s having a great year. His scoring is down slightly from his best years, but that seems to be a feature of the team giving young guys a chance to grow. Josh Giddey replaced a great offensive defer-er in Alex Caruso, and Coby White is continuing his strong offensive play from last year. That being said, I think that this is a good indicator for other teams considering trading for him, since he wouldn’t be a guy needing to go from a guy shooting 25 times per game to a guy who gets 16 shots per game.
Potential Buyers’ Wariness
There are three clear reasons brought up about not trading for LaVine, as I mentioned before:
He is paid superstar money, and he’s more of an all-star level player when things go right.
Over his last 5 seasons (not including this year), he’s averaged 57 games played. So, injuries are a concern with him.
He’s never been in a truly “winning” environment (which isn’t necessarily his fault), besides those ~20 games of that magical Chicago season back in 21-22. Never forget.
The risk is real here, because if a team trades for him and he validates any of those latter two concerns, then the first (the contract) becomes an immovable albatross.
My Case for Trading for Zach (and some FTI’s)
My argument is simple: LaVine is really good, and the league is wide open! The Cavs, the Thunder, the Celtics, the Knicks, and the Nuggets (probably the five safest bets on contenders) all have attributes that make you wonder if they’re truly ready to win four playoff rounds. There are also a number of teams who publicly will say that they are on the same level as those five teams, but behind closed doors are cooking up any moves they can to better their chances, since more teams are all-in than ever before.
So, naturally, here are some FTI’s.
Jaden Ivey Artificial Timeline Acceleration
Alright, this isn’t necessarily for a team who’s wanting to break into the top tier of contenders, but the Pistons have reached a new level this season. If you watch Jaden Ivey, there’s a lot of similarities in Zach’s fluid athleticism, but his jumper still isn’t quite there. Instead of waiting for Ivey AND Duren AND Thompson AND/OR Holland to arrive, why don’t you get Cade a true co-star? Also, Ivey’s injury clearly plays a role in his outlook.
Am I Crazy?
In my opinion, the Thunder need someone better than Jalen Williams as their second banana. I might be wrong, and I might be crazy. But in the playoffs and other big games, Jalen doesn’t seem like he’s there quite yet. And that’s okay!
Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Jalen Williams are all more than capable to hold up the perimeter defense in place of Dort. Joe’s shooting would be missed, but as I said, LaVine’s the best shooter in the league this year.
Do You Believe in Magic?
My reasoning is simple, and it is Zach Lowe’s (RIP the Lowe Post podcast) favorite Magic stat: Did you know that the Magic haven’t had a top 20 (TWENTY) offense since Dwight Howard left the Magic?
Maybe this isn’t enough for Zach (LaVine, not Lowe), so a pick might need to be sent. But the Magic, like OKC, have a defensive infrastructure to help Zach stay afloat. They have a real shot at this moment, and they need a real offensive player.
Wemby Gets a Co-Star
Wemby deserves someone next to him who will help him on offense who’s younger than 35 years old, because he’s ready right now. LaVine’s contract would run out at the same time as Wemby’s rookie deal. And all it would cost are two vets and Chicago’s own top-10 protected pick this year (and their second).
I'm surprised zach lowe hasn't started a new pod?