Free Agency Winners and Where to Find Them
Seeing who we can feel confident about (for better or worse) this offseason
The main headlines in the 2024 NBA free agency are the same as in every other moment in this league: the big names. The decisions of Paul George and Klay Thompson are making us forget that Mikal Bridges was traded for FIVE first round picks so he can go and play with his buddies (and play winning basketball with the Knicks). After a few years of quiet free agency periods, this one felt especially hectic.
As for those two big name moves for Philadelphia and Dallas (and, naturally, the Clippers and Warriors to not retain their guys), the jury is out on the magnitude of improvement that will be made there. It’s likely that the teams are helped in the aggregate, but significant turnover has a cost (see: the Suns over the last 2 years). Right now, Paul George, Eric Gordon, Andre Drummond, and Jared McCain are replacing Tobias Harris, Nic Batum, De’Anthony Melton, Mo Bamba, Buddy Hield (all but surely), Cameron Payne (probably) and Kyle Lowry (maybe). For the Mavericks, Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes, and Naji Marshall are replacing Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, and Tim Hardaway Jr.. All I’m saying is that there’s risk to throwing so much into the air.
So, for that reason, I won’t name them winners today. But, I think they were calculated risks worth taking. The Sixers definitely widened and lengthened their championship window. Now, to my definitive picks for winners and losers.
Winners: The Pillagers of Lopsided Trades
Speaking of PG, this NBA community is re-evaluating the 2019 Paul George trade between the Clippers and Thunder (which, as an important note, was an unofficial part of recruiting Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers) now that Paul George has left the Clippers. Many are saying that it has to be the worst trade in the last X years.
While appalling at first glance, this team was still very good for a few years then sorta good for the last couple years. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both made numerous all-star teams and had some all-NBA selections. But, nevertheless, the result remains one of the most lopsided for trades in recent memory.
The worst trade of the last 5 years needs to still be the Nikola Vucevic trade between Orlando and Chicago during the 2021 season. There was a time where you could say it provided them the legitimacy to go and get Demar Derozan, Alex Caruso, and Lonzo Ball the following offseason, but we now can see how that turned out (as tragic as it is for Bulls fans).
So, the two beneficiaries of the most lopsided trades in the last 5 years are the Magic and Thunder, whose 2nd best player came from each of these trades. The Thunder selected Jalen Williams in 2022 with the Clippers’ pick at #12, and the Magic selected Franz Wagner with the Bulls’ #8 pick in 2021. In addition to those picks, the Magic and Thunder picked #1 and #2 in 2022, resulting in Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren going to their respective teams.
All of this to say: In the 2024 offseason, the Thunder and Magic have won free agency in similar ways because they already had two foundational pieces on rookie contracts.
The Thunder added a significant, veteran free agent (Isaiah Hartenstein) and then retained their depth on long-term sub-MLE contracts (Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins). The Magic added a significant, veteran free agent (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) and then retained their depth on long-term sub-MLE contracts (Goga Bitadze, Mo Wagner, Gary Harris). The Magic also extended Jonathan Isaac, while the Thunder traded for Alex Caruso.
Both teams addressed some of their weaknesses, while still maintaining their identity. Paul George, Trae Young, or others who had been connected to one or both of these teams may have jeopardized what has made these teams’ trajectories so promising.
This is the hope of all resetting/rebuilding teams. They’re doing it.
Quick shout out to Jalen Suggs, #1 on my 2021 big board.
Another Winner: Bilal Coulibaly
With the Wizards signing Jonas Valančiūnas, Bilal Coulibaly, the organization’s pride and joy, can play with a legitimate starting center instead of either an inexperienced, raw rookie (Alex Sarr) or guys who aren’t good enough to start on a serious NBA team (Richaun Holmes or Marvin Bagley). The signing got a few sideways looks, but this will definitely help Bilal continue growing into his own.
Losers: (Most of) The Old Guard
6 of the last 8 finals teams—namely, the Heat, Nuggets, Warriors, Suns, Bucks, and Lakers—are seeing younger teams with more cap flexibility continue to improve as they get worse or, at best, stay the same.
The dreaded second apron (either the fear of it or the actual restrictions of it) is the common reason given for these teams. It makes sense, given the restrictions related to teams with payrolls above that second apron, and if you’re trying to manage a team in it, there’s only so much you can do. This is why the Clippers and Warrior seem so content to let their current or former stars walk for practically nothing. There is an opportunity cost regarding the flexibility that comes from maintaining that kind of payroll (hence the recent DJJ and Batum signings for the Clippers, and the Melton and Kyle Anderson signings for the Warriors after PG and Klay had confirmed that they were leaving).
Interestingly, some of these teams aren’t extremely old, or didn’t feel that way just a year or two ago. But now, with the way the league is going, they do feel like that old guard.
Another loser: Larry Nance Jr.
Not likely to be mentioned in most NBA free agency reviews, Larry Nance Jr. really seemed to have found a good spot in New Orleans. In the last few years, he rose up as a fun, switchy backup big who would close in big games at the 5 for the Pelicans, whether it was next to Zion or not. I’m sure they weren’t hoping to lose him in the Dejounte Murray trade, but alas, they did. Now, he’s on a Hawks team with three other centers. As a Suns fan, I’d happily take him.
FTI (Fun Trade Idea): Where is Brook Lopez going?
Zion Williamson and Brook Lopez feel like a match made in something below heaven, assuming Zion has some more rebounding that he’s willing to put for the effort to do. Lopez is one of the better spacing 5’s, is used to play next to a rim smashing 4, and would be the best rim protecter the Pelicans have had in 5 years. Reports say that the Bucks are interested in a more modern brand of basketball, implying that they’d like to use Brook Lopez’s expiring contract to bring in wings and shooting.
My trade idea (I know I had one for Sacramento last week as well, but it’s all love for my Pacific division brethren):
We all have the benefit of hindsight with the PG trade. I just hope that everyone retroactively calling it the worst trade of all time aren't the same people who thought at the time it made the Clippers instant championship favorites for as long as PG/Kawhi were together. Now they're giving that same benefit of the doubt to OKC. Their future looks bright on paper, but for all we know the Thunder could continue to have playoff disappointments too, health issues with their stars, or just trouble keeping guys in a small market.
If the second apron reduces draft pick devaluation by forcing teams to hold onto at least a few picks for the future, isn't that a good thing? Maybe teams with stop automatically resigning players at the maximum allowed amounts as well. As long as every team has to play by the same rules, parity will eventually happen, cap wise, at least. The smart management will evaluate and develop talent even und apron restrictions, but at least the bad teams are legislated to the minimum amount of stupidity.
Brook Lopez is a great example. Before Milwaukee could play fast and loose at the bottom of the roster to free up five or six million to sweeten Lopez resigning. The aprons may have ended those shenanigans. If Lopez wants to stay it won't be at the expense of other players. Now teams that might not have been considered can have the cap space - and opportunity - to try for a quality player.
Lopez fits nice with the Pels, but his skill set also matches the Bulls style of play - although Chicago would have to move Vucevich. Memphis could use Lopez for at least two years, depending on Zach Edey's learning curve and maybe moving away from Luke Kennard.
Neither Memphis or Chicago would want to use draft assets for Lopez, and to avoid the aprons Milwaukee might prefer cheaper and younger players in return. Win-Win.