My 2nd Most Interesting Team
Moving along the Gulf Coast from NOLA to Clutch City
Things did not look good for the Rockets when James Harden (and Russell Westbrook, to a lesser extent) requested a trade in the 2020 offseason. They had numerous picks out the door, no good young players, and a feeling that it would be a long time before they could develop into a contender again. That season (in a 72 game season), only Jae’Sean Tate played more than 51 games, and they won 17. John Wall, Christian Wood, and Victor Oladipo didn’t provide much as veteran players around their patchwork roster.
Over the next two years, the Rockets were seen as a frustrating example of a tanking team. Head Coach Stephen Silas was not well-respected by his team, they kept trying to make Kevin Porter Jr. work, and their team just stunk. In 2021, they drafted European wonderkind Alperen Sengun #2 overall, and Jalen Green at #16. In 2022, they picked Jabari Smith Jr. at #3 and Tari Eason 17th. In 2023, along came Amen Thompson at the fourth pick in the draft. In those two years, they won a combined 42 games.
In the 2023 offseason, the additions of head coach Ime Udoka and veteran bulldogs Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks indicated a change of priority (that priority being something called “winning”). They went 41-41 in the regular season, with a top 10 defense. From March 3 through March 29, they went 13-1 (and I will refer to this stretch numerous times in this post). Jalen Green averaged 29 points on 50/42/76 shooting splits and Amen Thompson averaged 14 points and 8 rebounds on 59% shooting from the field, all while… curiously… Sengun was injured for the final 9 games. It was not against the most impressive group of teams, but it felt like an important set of games to project forward.
This offseason, the main happenings have been the selection of Reed Sheppard (thanks, Brooklyn!), and the unfortunate stepping-away-from-the-game of AJ Griffin.
NOTE: I know that Jalen Green was selected #2 in 2021. I just enjoy when teammates are both selected in the first round but in retrospect, the two picks would be more logical if they had been flipped.
Current State of the Roster
This is what the current roster looks like:
The Vets: FVV (30), Brooks (28), Steven Adams (31)
Established Kids: Sengun (22), Green (22), Jabari (21), Eason (23)
NBA Toddlers: Amen (21), Whitmore (20), Sheppard (20)
The Other Guys: Jock Landale (28), Aaron Holiday (basically 28), Jae’Sean Tate (28), Jeff Green (38)
I’ve got questions about these guys, and some possible answers that may or may not be correct.
1. Will they be able to crack the top 10 (or 11) in the West?
All 7 of their young guys are still on their rookie contracts, but Sengun and Green are entering their final years. That means that this team is still very young, but isn’t far from becoming expensive. Will they care about making a jump into the play-in, or are they patiently waiting for the geriatric teams to move into tank-mode?
From what I can see, they are in an interesting spot in the West. I think that they would be extremely disappointed if they ended the season behind any of San Antonio, Utah, or Portland. At the same time, they’d be very proud if they ended up ahead of any of the other 11 teams (their healthy versions, at least) in the West. Memphis being back again puts a twist on these things, since they were so riddled with injuries last year. So, that means that 12th is the spot they’d feel the most logically content with the season.
In order to do exceed those expectations, they’ll need to work better together. Their assumed 4/5 of the future, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun, had a barely negative point differential (-0.8) when sharing the floor. When Jalen Green shared the floor with those two, it was slightly worse. If those three aren’t going to make those three work (since it seems like they should, if they’re worth building around), then the long-term doesn’t look so great for the trio.
The team didn’t have many world-beating lineups (none of their eleven most-used 3-man lineups had better than a +3 net rating), and their best trio was Sengun with their two main vets: Brooks and VanVleet. So, they’ll need more progress from their young guys, specifically Jabari Smith Jr. and his chemistry with Sengun.
My prediction: Honestly, I don’t see them moving ahead of any of the 11 presumed teams ahead of them. Also, San Antonio could be good. Maybe Houston will prove me wrong.
2. Who’s the real Jalen Green and is he good?
In October, December, February, and April, Jalen Green averaged 16/5/3 on 48 TS% over 37 games.
In November, January, and March, Jalen Green averaged 23/5/4 on 58 TS% over 45 games.
It seems like the Rockets’ success may have been extremely dependent on Jalen Green playing well. Of all the Rockets players, Green had the biggest negative difference between wins and losses in PIE, NBA.com’s all-in-one metric. He was among the worst in win/loss difference in points per game, FG%, and TS% as well. As I said before, Jalen Green’s best stretch of the season was their 13-1 stretch near the end of the season.
He likely won’t get a contract extension this summer, and will be in a contract year. It’s time to show that he’s closer to (good) Zach LaVine than he is to (Warriors) Jordan Poole. Their team needs a top scorer, and if it’s not him, they’ll need to keep on looking.
My prediction: With Sheppard and Whitmore as backup shooters/scorers, Jalen Green’s leash probably won’t be quite as long as it has been in the past. I don’t know if he has some massive leap in him to like 30 points per game, but the consistency should improve… right?
3. Will they need to choose between Thompson and Sengun?
Their two most unique and (possibly) highest-ceiling young guys are Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. Sengun’s flat-footed ballet seems like the best Jokic impression we’ve seen, while Thompson plays like the Flash with Andre Roberson’s jump shot.
Alpi is an immovable object:
And Amen is an unstoppable force:
As a concern, when they were on the court together, they had a -4.7 net rating. In reality, this makes sense. Both want to (and should) shoot near the basket. Both are best with the ball in their hands. Their skillsets just don’t match up well. As further evidence, the Rockets with Sengun on the floor without Amen +2.7 net rating in 3384 possessions. With Amen and no Sengun, they had a +6.1 net rating in 1999 possessions (with the caveat that it was the mostly during that one blistering stretch).
They don’t need to trade either, especially if Sengun is the apple of their eye. They can wait 3 more years before Thompson gets paid, seeing if they can make it work.
SIDE NOTE: I swear I’ve written on this before, but I couldn’t find it among my posts. Even if I have, it’s a pressing question for one of the most fun players (Sengun) in the NBA.
What if they choose Thompson? Ime Udoka is all about defense, and Thompson’s defensive ceiling is stratospheric. Other than Sengun, they have shooters, and he could figure to be a great point guard if surrounded by shooters because of his untethered aggressiveness.
I would choose Sengun, but here’s a trade idea for Sengun just in case:
Why would the Rockets do this?
The Rockets are choosing defense and athleticism. Kessler is a very very good defensive center, would fit well next to Jabari, and wouldn’t need the ball in his hands like Sengun. The two extra picks are extremely valuable to go along with the Suns’ draft future that they own, helping them be ready for the big trade in the next couple years. Sexton is an impressive, underrated combo guard that would help their offense a lot. They could end up with the best defense in the league with this group, and would not be fun to play against with their unreal speed and athleticism.
Why would the Jazz do this?
They just gave Lauri Markkanen a quadrillion dollars, and have made no other moves towards winning recently. Sengun and Lauri are both good-enough defenders, and they have defense-first Taylor Hendricks (hopefully) developing into a stretchy big wing who can take on the most important LeBron-esque assignments. If any of Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier, or Cody Williams turn out, this would be tough to stop. I’d do it.
Well, I wouldn’t trade Sengun. Just to be clear. But overall, should be fun.
I think you got the draft spots wrong: Jalen Green was #2, Alpi was #16. Unless my English is bad, of course, but that's how i read it
Adding Sexton to the already crowded backcourt in Houston does worry me that it could hinder the development of their younger guys. I have no clue how a Lauri/Alpy combo would work but I'd be enthralled to watch it.
In general I do agree that the Rockets need to consolidate their youth since they won't be able to pay all of them. I don't know the right answer but I'm thinking after half a season or so this year they need to start getting an idea of what they want that future to be.